The past year has dramatically changed how we work and travel. We now work from home more than ever before, travelling much less for business. To understand how business mobility has changed over the past year, RDC, VNA, NS and RET have joined forces with research partner VMS | Insight to produce a special edition of their National Business Mobility Survey (NZMO). This survey was completed in September 2020.
Working from home and travelling less
It comes as no surprise to learn that the number of people working from home has increased exponentially. Today, 62% of people work from home, compared to only 37% before the pandemic. That does not seem to have had a negative effect on our productivity, however; 80% of the respondents say that they are at least as productive as they were at the office. But it has resulted in us driving 25% fewer kilometres for business.
The respondents expect that many of the things we’ve done differently over the past year will become permanent elements of life in the future. The insights do differ from group to group, however, depending on the mode of transportation they used before the pandemic. For example, 46% of car drivers felt that the new ‘normal’ will be different from what we had been accustomed to. In contrast, 56% of travellers on public transport (tram, metro, bus) and no less than 78% of train passengers said the same. People also plan on avoiding rush hour to some degree, according to 26% of car drivers, 35% of public transport users and 60% of train passengers.
Although we are still in a lockdown, the start of vaccinations offers some light at the end of the tunnel. What will that mean for our mobility this year? We’ve listed some of the most important trends below.
1. We’ll keep working from home
It seems obvious today: now that we’re accustomed to working for home, it proves to have benefits for both employers and employees. But we don’t expect to give up the office entirely. Several surveys show that we would be happy working at the office for 1-2 days per week. The office will increasingly serve the purpose of facilitating social interaction and collaboration. And as we take turns going to the office, it may have a positive effect on traffic congestion in 2021 and beyond.
2. Public transport will remain less popular for the foreseeable future
Research in China has already indicated that people are a bit hesitant to use public transport to return to work, even if there is no immediate danger of infection. The high percentage in the NZMO survey (60%) who expect to avoid rush hour may also indicate that people are not eager to face crowded trains again. In China, we have noticed that many people prefer to use a car instead of public transport, and we will probably observe that shift in the Netherlands as well. That could result in no reduction in traffic congestion, even though more of us are working from home. Actively avoiding rush hour and crowded public transport will spread travellers more evenly throughout the day.
3. The e-bike is more popular than ever
2020 was the year that e-bikes finally became mainstream. The version with a maximum speed of 25 km/h, which is ideal for short distances, was constantly sold out. For longer distances, cyclists could choose for the speed pedelec, as its a maximum speed of 45 km/h makes it a serious alternative to travelling by car or public transport. The main shift was among public transport passengers, but employers are also increasingly reaping the e-bike’s benefits. The NZMO survey showed that the factor ‘health’ played twice as important a role in organising business mobility. We have also observed a clear increase in the popularity of leased bicycles, and improvements to the fiscal regulations are sure to give a boost to bike leasing over the coming year.
4. Private Lease is growing
As our preferences for commuting to and from work change, and we work more from home, some employers and employees will be moved to choose for a more flexible arrangement to suit their mobility needs, and grant a mobility budget instead of a company car. While we expect that more and more people will choose to take their e-bikes for shorter distances, the mobility budget won’t entirely eliminate the convenience of having a car. Some percentage of them will choose to for a Private Lease, so that there’s always a car when you need one. And since the monthly mobility budget will cover part of the expenses, the fixed monthly Private Lease payment will be an obvious choice. Studies show that even public transport users expect to shift to driving a car in the future, and they will naturally look for a care-free, reliable alternative like a Private Lease.
5. Pre-owned cars increasingly popular
Last year was the first in which more than 2 million cars were sold. 1.3 million of them were pre-owned vehicles sold by dealerships, which represented a growth of 1.3%. With a market share of 82%, petrol-engine cars were overwhelmingly the most popular option. Demand for diesels decreased to only 12%. We have also observed a shift in demand from the traditionally popular models to smaller cars on the one hand and SUVs on the other. That in turn has an effect on the average sale price. Where Dutch prices increased by an average of only 94 euros (0.57%), average European prices increased by 371 euros!
As demand is expected to shift towards more individual transportation, it will most likely result in an increase in demand for pre-owned cars. But that raises the question of whether the supply can accommodate demand. That could result in dramatically higher prices for popular models. These trends are based on the expectation that the Netherlands won’t ‘return to usual’ after the COVID-19 pandemic. The development towards a greater focus on working independently of a specific time and place is unlikely to be reversed now that we’ve all experienced a different way of working, and that means we will make different choices in how we organise our mobility.